Dangers of Overproduction

Tuesday, March 10, 2009 1:57:01 PM (Romance Standard Time, UTC+01:00)
The other day Danish newspaper Politiken had an article about how Toyota is renting a ship to store unsold 1200 cars in the harbour of Malmö, the Swedish town just across Øresund from Copenhagen. My guess would be that there's some hansei - reflection in Japanese - going on at the world's best manufacturer and the inventor of Lean. Obviously, Toyota has been producing to forecast and not to actual custumer pull. Some of the questions the people at Toyota probably could be asking themselves are these: Why didn't we sense the actual market conditions during the fall of 2008 and changed our production schedules? Why did we resolve to wishful thinking about customer demand? Why did we end up with overproduction? - the worst of Toyota Production System genius Taichi Ohno's seven types of waste in manufacturing.

When I saw the picture of unsold cars accompanying the article in Politiken I once again had the thought: Wouldn't it be nice if overproduction could be much more visible in software development? In much software development people are also producing to very uncertain forecasts without being in contact with the actual customer pull. And in software development the forecasts come in the form of big specifications of features that in many instances end up being delayed. And even worse, features not being used by the users when finally implemented.

If we had to rent ships to store all the implemented, but unused features, there might be some more hansei going on to avoid implementing those features in the first place?

By Thomas Blomseth
Tuesday, March 10, 2009 6:57:42 PM (Romance Standard Time, UTC+01:00)
Nice idea! By continuously running a code-coverage tool on the system in production, you could pinpoint all the code that was never used. Then put the data up on a visible diagram, possibly shaping it like a rented ship...
Lars Thorup
Wednesday, March 11, 2009 4:16:28 PM (Romance Standard Time, UTC+01:00)
Good and relevant blog entry!

Just the other day I was travelling from the airport in Barcelona, Spain to my hotel down town. On the way I noticed a huge parking lot with thousands of Suzuki Swift models parked! Though I don't know the exact reason for these cars being parked here, I imagine that Suzuki are facing the same issues.

I'll try to see if I can take a picture on the way home and send it to you for posting along with this blog entry :-) When you see something like that you realize just how much money gets tied up in cars that can't be sold!
Suneg
Tuesday, April 07, 2009 9:10:40 PM (Romance Standard Time, UTC+01:00)
Here is some interesting extra info, to put things into perspective.

Actual location:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=da&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=113530337682392031291.000466fc5c6379ac6c6dc&ll=55.622459,13.007877&spn=0.010129,0.033045&t=h&z=16

Nearby production in Toyota factories located in adjacent countries (2006 numbers):
http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/about_toyota/in_the_world/pdf2007/africa_europe.pdf

Inventory being some 13000 units corresponds to approx. 1.5 months worth production of the Czech factory. I would say that indicates production to forecast, but there could of cause be aspects that does not show up in these numbers :-)
Sune Gynthersen
Sunday, October 11, 2009 8:29:08 PM (Romance Standard Time, UTC+01:00)
i love this page keep it up.
I am from Herzegovina and know bad English, tell me right I wrote the following sentence: "The financial school transdermally would have been only more abnormal to us than crop."

With respect 8), 5 day cleansing diet.
Thursday, November 12, 2009 11:45:38 PM (Romance Standard Time, UTC+01:00)
Good afternoon. As I get older, I've learned to listen to people rather than accuse them of things.
I am from Republic and also am speaking English, give please true I wrote the following sentence: "In excess seekers, for every sentiment of signature, there are two loans to assist it."

:-( Thanks in advance. National small business.
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